ONS UK Labour Market Overview - October Summary
This report provides an overview of UK labour market trends based on the latest data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in October 2024. It examines changes in employment, unemployment, economic inactivity, the claimant count, vacancies, and wage growth over recent months and compares these trends with figures from the previous year. The data offers insights into the shifting dynamics of the UK job market and highlights ongoing challenges and opportunities within the economy.
Employment Trends
The report reveals that payrolled employees decreased by 35,000 (or -0.1%) between July and August 2024. However, the annual comparison indicates an increase of 165,000 employees (0.5%) between August 2023 and August 2024. Over the June to August 2024 period, the number of payrolled employees rose by 3,000 (0.0%) over the quarter, with an annual increase of 203,000 (0.7%).
Provisional Estimate for September 2024
The early estimate for September 2024 suggests a decrease in payrolled employees by 15,000 (0.0%) on the month, while on an annual basis, employee numbers rose by 113,000 (0.4%), bringing the total to 30.3 million. However, as this is a provisional estimate, it may be subject to revision as more data becomes available.
Unemployment and Economic Inactivity
The unemployment rate for people aged 16 and over was estimated at 4.0%, which represents a decrease compared to the same period last year. The economic inactivity rate for people aged 16 to 64 was estimated at 21.8%, also reflecting a decline year over year.
Claimant Count
The UK claimant count rose, reaching 1.797 million in September 2024. This increase is expected to persist due to changes in the administrative earnings threshold for full work search conditionality, a policy likely to impact claimant numbers over the coming months.
Vacancies
Regarding job vacancies, there was a notable decrease of 34,000 vacancies from July to September 2024, marking the 27th consecutive period of quarterly declines. Despite these reductions, the current vacancy levels remain above pre-pandemic levels, suggesting an ongoing demand for workers, albeit at a reduced rate.
Wage Growth
Wage growth in the UK increased, with average regular pay (excluding bonuses) growing by 4.9% from June to August 2024. Total earnings, which include bonuses, rose by 3.8% during the same period, influenced by one-off payments made to NHS and civil service employees in the previous year. In real terms, after adjusting for inflation, wage growth was recorded at 1.9% for regular pay and 0.9% for total pay, indicating modest but positive growth in purchasing power.
Labour Disputes
Additionally, labour disputes resulted in an estimated 31,000 working days lost across the UK in August 2024, reflecting ongoing issues within certain sectors.
The October 2024 data from the ONS reflects a complex labour market landscape. While the UK continues to experience modest growth in employee numbers and wage gains, challenges persist, particularly with the rising claimant count and reduced job vacancies. Although inflation-adjusted wages have shown improvement, the increased volatility in labour force estimates and shrinking sample sizes suggest caution when interpreting these changes. Businesses, policymakers, and workers must navigate a period of adjustment as new policy measures influence the workforce, and economic indicators point towards a gradual but uneven recovery.
Source: Labour market overview, UK – Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)
